When you hear hoofbeats, think horses, not zebras.
The title of this entry is familiar enough, but most do not know its origin. This thought provoking phrase is a modern translation of Occam's Razor. In simple but direct terms, Occam's Razor (named after the 14th-century English logician and Franciscan friar, William of Ockham) is the basis for methodological reductionism. Don't make any explanation more complicated than it need be.
Why do I bring this up? Simple (pun intended), we as a society could learn a great deal from the long deceased William of Ockham. Running contrary to Occam's Razor is at epidemic levels in our society which hungers for the outrageous, extreme and sensational. Nothing is ever taken at face value any more, even though it virtually always should be. In the name of healthy skepticism, we look for outlandish explanations for the mundane, and when not found we often fabricate them either with intent or unknowingly.
Take the explanations for the paranormal. I recently ran across a video and detailed explanation for "Rod Phenomenon" (RP). I found it fascinating, not because I think it's supernatural, otherworldly or of Alien origin. I found it a study in human nature. You see, there are two primary camps that lay claim to understanding RP. The first are the UFO hunters, the other being ghost hunters. Strangely there is no one in the ghost hunting camp that believes that RP is of Alien origin. Likewise there is no one of the UFO ilk who would argue that RP is some sort of evidence of a ghostly presence. Those who believe in both UFOs and ghosts tend to be of the "it could be either" crowd. Perhaps of more significance is why no one devoted to either ghost or UFO hunting (or both) seem to think that RP is just a piece of debris being blown through the air fast enough to create a motion blur (which on video appears as a rod). These people set out looking for something that they could not readily explain in order to assign an outlandish explanation to it, thus defying a fundamental tenet of logic; Occam's Razor.
The paranomalists are not the only party guilty of such high crimes. Consider this list for a moment:
- Those of strong religious beliefs
- Those devoted to health/exercise/good diet
- Those of strong political beliefs
What if the sciences; physics, math, etc., approached the unknown with such foolishness. How many unknowns have we discovered the truth for, and how many more unknowns exist? What if doctors still practiced blood-letting in an attempt to divest the human body disease? Not all outlandish explanations are harmless. When we make decisions based on poor or no logic, bad things happen.
The rules of logic in analytic thought are a lost science. Schools used to teach logic, and the fact that they no longer do is made painfully obvious every day in the news. Logic is the foundation for every important decision, conversation and thought that you will ever have. Without logic, we are drifting in a sea of information that is of no use to us. Water water everywhere, but not a drop to drink.
posted by Egon Rinderer at 22:33
